From the well-regarded
The War Zone and the
Financial Times of London comes an eye-popping assessment of Russia's doctrinal use of tactical nukes. This could be of some concern.
https://www.twz.com/nuclear/russias-low-threshold-for-nuclear-weapons-use-detailed-in-new-report
Snippets:
...the
Financial Times' piece says the leaked documents provide additional specific details that point to lower Russian thresholds for tactical nuclear weapon use than have been previously understood, at least publicly. They also reportedly speak directly to escalate-to-deescalate-type strategies.
"Other potential conditions include the destruction of 20 percent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines, 30 percent of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a simultaneous hit on main and reserve coastal command centers," according to the story. "Russia’s military is also expected to be able to use tactical nuclear weapons for a broad array of goals, including 'containing states from using aggression […] or escalating military conflicts', 'stopping aggression', preventing Russian forces from losing battles or territory, and making Russia’s navy 'more effective'."
The U.S. government
has generally assessed that Russia has up to 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons in recent years. This is in addition to its strategic nuclear weapons,
such as road-mobile and
silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and
submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Its tactical nuclear stockpile is understood to include a variety of air, sea, and ground-launched weapons, including, but not limited to
short-range ballistic missiles, air-dropped gravity bombs,
torpedos, and artillery shells. The Russian military even
reportedly has nuclear land mines.
Concerns about the exact circumstances under which Russia's government might launch a nuclear strike, especially one involving the use of lower-yield tactical nuclear weapons,
are hardly new. Fears about the willingness of Russian authorities to pursue a so-called
escalate-to-deescalate strategy, which would consist of launching a limited nuclear strike — even one resulting in very minimal damage — in an attempt to freeze a conflict and thus manipulate its outcome in Moscow’s favor,
have only become more pronounced since the country's all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Altogether, the
Financial Times' new report shows that "Russian doctrine for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons by the Russian Navy includes a much lower threshold for nuclear use than previously thought, and far lower than the Kremlin has claimed in the years since the end of the Cold War," William Alberque, the director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control at the
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank
wrote on X.
From the reported details in the leaked documents, "Russia's naval nuclear doctrine is consistent with its very real shortcomings and precarious position compared to the US Navy, therefore integrating nuclear planning at lower levels, giving commanders wide targeting flexibility after initial nuclear use," Alberque
added.
Kristensen further highlighted that the scenarios outlined in the
Financial Timespiece, even those with the potential for an escalate-to-deescalate strategy, all involve a response to attacks on Russia itself. Discussions about escalate-to-deescalate in the past have typically revolved around Russia's use of such a strategy to prevent the irrevocable failure of intervention outside of the country's borders, such as its ongoing war in Ukraine or a theoretical land-grab in the Baltics.
From the reported details in the leaked documents, "Russia's naval nuclear doctrine is consistent with its very real shortcomings and precarious position compared to the US Navy, therefore integrating nuclear planning at lower levels, giving commanders wide targeting flexibility after initial nuclear use," Alberque
added.
My comment: Are we arriving at the end of civilization on Earth? From my perspective, American civilization hit its highpoint in 1963.
Tant pis. When did Berlin and London hit their high points?