NATO relations with Ukraine

[georgegassaway]

History and current info regarding NATO and Ukraine

NATO relations with Ukraine:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37750.htm

"A sovereign, independent and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and the rule of law, is key to Euro-Atlantic security. Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s and have since developed into one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships. Since 2014, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cooperation has been intensified in critical areas.

Highlights

• Dialogue and cooperation started after the end of the Cold War, when newly independent Ukraine joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (1991) and the Partnership for Peace programme (1994).
• Relations were strengthened with the signing of the 1997 Charter on a Distinctive Partnership, which established the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) to take cooperation forward.
• The Declaration of 2009 to Complement the NATO-Ukraine Charter mandated the NUC, through Ukraine’s Annual National Programme, to underpin Ukraine’s efforts to take forward reforms aimed at implementing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations
• Cooperation has deepened over time and is mutually beneficial with Ukraine actively contributing to NATO-led operations and missions.
• Priority is given to support for comprehensive reform in the security and defence sector, which is vital for Ukraine’s democratic development and for strengthening its ability to defend itself.
• In response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO has reinforced its support for capability development and capacity-building in Ukraine. The Allies continue to condemn Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, and its destabilising and aggressive activities in eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea region. NATO has increased its presence in the Black Sea and stepped up maritime cooperation with Ukraine and Georgia.
• Since the NATO Summit in Warsaw in July 2016, NATO’s practical support for Ukraine has been subsumed in the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) for Ukraine.
• In June 2017, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted legislation reinstating membership in NATO as a strategic foreign and security policy objective.
• Newly elected President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited NATO Headquarters on 4 June to discuss the security situation in Ukraine and NATO’s continued support for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy underlined his eagerness to give new impetus to his country’s engagement with NATO."

 

[Dotini]

According to recent published reports, US intelligence officials believe Russia, aided by Belarus, may attack Ukraine with 175,000 troops shortly into the new year - unless Biden gives Putin a binding guarantee NATO will not expand to include Ukraine.

 

[tsmmiller]

I am really torn with this. I first visited Ukraine in 2001, visiting and falllling in love with Odessa during that trip. I returned 3 more times. On the third visit I met the lady that would become my wife 5 years in the future. I returned to Ukraine and Odessa several more times per year during those 5 years. She came to the US, and we soon married.
We still return every year. Mrs still has her home in Usatovo, and is just finishing up an apartment she purchased in the Primorsky area of Odessa.
So many friends and of course family still in Ukraine. I’ve talked to many of them about this over the years.
Most say they do not care who the government is, so long as they are taken care of. Pensions, if you are lucky enough to have one are about $30 per month, most often much less. Cost of living is extremely high. Graft though illegal is so common as to just automatically be expected.
I shudder to think of the lives lost from a Russian/Ukraine conflict. Ukraine will cease to exist, at least as we know it.
Truthfully I feel Putin will advance. He will accept nothing less than the complete reunification of what was the USSR, regardless of what he has to do to get it. I believe he thinks he can attack with impunity. I largely believe he is right.
I pray for my friends and family, and the second county I have come to love as much as my own.

 

[cbwho]

Unfortunately, I think somebody must in earnest negotiate a meaningful split of Ukraine along language division into 2 countries. With the Ukrainian speaking regions joining NATO. Otherwise we must go to war. Letting Putin have all of Ukraine is 100% appeasement and that is a long term strategy that will lead to bigger wars.

Unfortunately this is a situation that is very dire and full of loss with any course of action.

 

[tsmmiller]

Unfortunately, I think somebody must in earnest negotiate a meaningful split of Ukraine along language division into 2 countries. With the Ukrainian speaking regions joining NATO. Otherwise we must go to war. Letting Putin have all of Ukraine is 100% appeasement and that is a long term strategy that will lead to bigger wars.

Unfortunately this is a situation that is very dire and full of loss with any course of action.

The problem with that scenario is that the way the division runs is most rural areas of the country is where the Ukrainian language is the dominate while in urban/city areas is where Russian is dominant.
Mrs is from Usatovo, a small village around 15 miles from Odessa, she speaks Russian. One of her friends here in the US is from a tiny town with no actual name in the western part of Ukraine, she speaks Ukrainian. To my ears they sound alike. They tell me there are differences. The two languages can be understood by the other. I asked how they speak to one another. Mrs speaks and answers in Russian, S answers and and speaks in her Ukrainian. How do you divide?
It is unfortunate that if Putin steps into Ukraine, it will be the Ukraine people that pay the price.

 

[Funkworks]

I currently know little about the situation, but I found the construction of the Crimean bridge to be interesting in a way. As far as I know, it was mostly a Russian project, so I’m wondering what Ukrainians think of it and what role it played in the “annexation“ (is that the right word?), etc.

Until I know more about a geopolitical situation, I usually assume things happen for geographical reasons. Like bodies of water, ressources, bridges, roads, mountains, etc.

 

[tsmmiller]

Without Crimea, Russia has no access to the Mediterranean and its seas. Russia views he Black Sea as a buffer and security from threat from Turkey and the Middle East. The ports were on active lease, if that is the correct way to describe it, from Ukraine until Russia ”annexed” the region. Donbass is in the eastern part of the country and closely allies with Russia. The area is occupied by “security forces” that wear no insignia and claim not to be Russian, but neither are they Ukrainian. They claim little to no representation from Kiev. True or not I don’t really know.
The retaking of Ukraine will once again return the massive sea ports of Odessa back into Russian control.

 

[afadeev]

NATO relations with Ukraine:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37750.htm

This is not about NATO, or its relations with Ukraine, which are minor and insignificant.
NATO has no obligations w.r.t. Ukraine.
The US actually does:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/uk...pddHIgYfi9yxA5n9nKru-dw4qlpDJ0BBoC_S8QAvD_BwE
If the US is unwilling or unable to stand behind its commitments to protect Ukrainian territorial integrity today, what does it say about our commitment to Taiwan's independence tomorrow?
Of all the players, China must be watching how the US responds with an even greater interest than Russia!

Unfortunately, I think somebody must in earnest negotiate a meaningful split of Ukraine along language division into 2 countries.

The issue at stake is our (US) foreign policy, US security assurances to Ukraine in exchange for nuclear disarmament, and US leadership position in Europe and the world.
Russia/Putin have been on a revanchist bender trying to reassemble Soviet empire through raw military aggression.
#44 and #45 have responded meekly, with mild sanctions and talks of accommodation. We will see if #46 has any balls, but somehow, I doubt it.

Putin's agenda is not to grab a slice of Ukraine, or some parts with certain linguistic preferences. Giving him slices of neighboring countries would do nothing to increase security in Europe.
And all this is ignoring the fact that NONE of those neighboring countries want to, or will accept, occupation by Russia. BTDT, we all know how that ended.

The last guy to try a similar territorial expansionist policy and methods in Europe was speaking German and sporting a stupid moustache.
We appeased that last guy with territorial concessions for about a decade, before the inevitable happened and we got sucked into a world war.
'nuff said.

Without Crimea, Russia has no access to the Mediterranean and its seas. Russia views he Black Sea as a buffer and security from threat from Turkey and the Middle East.

Not a buffer from Turkey or Middle East. And not even from the US or NATO.
Russia does not really need any defensive buffers from anyone in 21st century. It's a red herring Russian argument to distract the gullible.

“It cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire” Zbigniew Brzezinski.​

Can anyone honestly say that the US is actually better off allowing Russian empire to be re-stablished?
The real question is - when do we contain Russia (and China), and how.
Appeasement never works, and never ends well.

a

 

[Dotini]

This is not about NATO, or its relations with Ukraine, which are minor and insignificant.
NATO has no obligations w.r.t. Ukraine.
The US actually does:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/uk...pddHIgYfi9yxA5n9nKru-dw4qlpDJ0BBoC_S8QAvD_BwE
If the US is unwilling or unable to stand behind it's commitments to protect Ukrainian territorial integrity today, what does it say about our commitments to Taiwan's independence tomorrow?
Of all the players, China must be watching how the US responds with an even greater interest than Russia!



The issue at stake is our (US) foreign policy, US security assurances to Ukraine in exchange for nuclear disarmament, and US leadership position in Europe and the world.
Russia/Putin have been on a revanchist bender trying to reassemble Soviet empire through raw military aggression.
#44 and #45 have responded meekly, with mild sanctions and talks of accommodation. We will see if #46 has any balls, but somehow, I doubt it.

Putin's agenda is not to grab a slice of Ukraine, or some parts with with certain language speaking preferences. Giving him slices of neighboring countries would do nothing to increase security in Europe.
And all this is ignoring the fact that NONE of those neighboring countries want to, or will accept, occupation by Russia. BTDT, we all know how that ended.

The last guy to try a similar territorial expansion policy and methods in Europe was speaking German and sporting a stupid moustache.
We appeased that last guy with territorial concessions for about a decade, before the inevitable happened and we got sucked into a world war.
'nuff said.



Not Turkey or Middle East. And not even US or NATO.
Russian does not really need defensive buffers from anyone in 21st century.

“It cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire” Zbigniew Brzezinski.​

Can anyone honest say that the US is actually better off allowing Russian empire to be re-stablished?
The real question is - when do we contain Russia (and China), and how.
Appeasement never works, and never ends well.

a

Maybe we should attack, all out and right away? But might it be better to warm up by attacking Canada first? Don't we need their fresh water, forests, oil, gold, rare earth minerals and women?

 

[tsmmiller]

I think "a" is right, "Can anyone honest say that the US is actually better off allowing Russian empire to be re-established?"
When Putin, yes I think when, moves across the Border into Ukraine the entire world loses.

 

[Zeus-cat]

I read Pat Buchanan's editorial today. He advocates a U.S. policy that supports U.S. interests. He sees no U.S. interests in the Ukraine or Tiawan. Furthermore, he thinks the U.S. is arrogant for trying to export democracy as the only true form of government when we have had many totalitarian allies over the years, including both China and Russia. Not saying I agree with him, but it was an interesting editorial.

 

[Dipstick]

Maybe we should attack, all out and right away? But might it be better to warm up by attacking Canada first? Don't we need their fresh water, forests, oil, gold, rare earth minerals and women?

Come on up! We'll merge CAR/ACF into TRA, drop the silly border restrictions, and have even more fun. Poutine on me.

 

[cwbullet]

I read Pat Buchanan's editorial today. He advocates a U.S. policy that supports U.S. interests. He sees no U.S. interests in the Ukraine or Tiawan. Furthermore, he thinks the U.S. is arrogant for trying to export democracy as the only true form of government when we have had many totalitarian allies over the years, including both China and Russia. Not saying I agree with him, but it was an interesting editorial.

Our interests are clear. We must prevent the expansion of China and Russia. We made a commitment to Ukraine so either we fulfill it or we lose credibility on the world stage.

 

[Dotini]

Our interests are clear. We must prevent the expansion of China and Russia. We made a commitment to Ukraine so either we fulfill it or we lose credibility on the world stage.

We lost our credibility a long time ago. The Reagan administration made a pledge with Gorbachev not to expand NATO in return for the USSR dissolving and ending the Cold War. Subsequent administrations reneged on his word. The US is solidly committed to one and only one principle: might makes right and the ends justify the means. As George RR Martin said, a useful, beautiful or necessary lie is preferable to an ugly truth.

 

[cwbullet]

We lost our credibility a long time ago. The Reagan administration made a pledge with Gorbachev not to expand NATO in return for the USSR dissolving and ending the Cold War. Subsequent administrations reneged on his word. The US is solidly committed to one and only one principle: might makes right and the ends justify the means. As George RR Martin said, a useful, beautiful or necessary lie is preferable to an ugly truth.

Priorities change but promises among friends should not. Russia is a foe and not a friend. They have violated a heck of a lot of agreements in turn.

 

[Steve Shannon]

We lost our credibility a long time ago. The Reagan administration made a pledge with Gorbachev not to expand NATO in return for the USSR dissolving and ending the Cold War. Subsequent administrations reneged on his word. The US is solidly committed to one and only one principle: might makes right and the ends justify the means. As George RR Martin said, a useful, beautiful or necessary lie is preferable to an ugly truth.

No
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-f...promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/amp/

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Maybe we should attack, all out and right away? But might it be better to warm up by attacking Canada first? Don't we need their fresh water, forests, oil, gold, rare earth minerals and women?

If we're going to conquer a nation for its women, I suggest we go for Australia. I am convinced that there's more than one Margo Robbie in the outback and I want one!

Our interests are clear. We must prevent the expansion of China and Russia. We made a commitment to Ukraine so either we fulfill it or we lose credibility on the world stage.

But how do we prevent said expansion?

 

[StreuB1]

There is no way that the US will (can) not get involved militarily if Russia takes things to the next level.

If Russia does, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Romania, will react. If they do, then the US has to via Article 5. As well, the US will not allow any of these countries (especially Poland) to walk head-on into a fight with Russia. I work with a company dominated by Polish and Ukrainian immigrants and the talk of things back home is that if Russia steps too far, Poland is going all in and they will not wait for anyone else to sign on. Poland is a far stronger country now, stronger than it has ever been and while the older generation still remembers communist rule, they have little to lose if Russia invades Ukraine. Its bad enough that the Polish citizens live side-by-side with Kaliningrad Oblast (this is Russia!!) and Belarus (Russia-by-proxy), with that lunatic Lukashenko. They are no match for Russia on their own but from what I have been told, "We are never going back to the way it was. We would rather die in the forests than to go back."

The US will not allow Poland to go in alone. There would be outcry the likes has never been seen before if we did. And its not just Poland. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia would as well as they are staunch allies. If Estonia and Latvia go in, then NORDEFCO will activate. That means Denmark will go in and Denmark is a strong US ally as the rest of them are strong allies. Denmark as been at the side of US military operations for the past several decades so it goes to say if they are in the fight, we will be hip to hip with them.

It is a whole domino chain of events that would be triggered, completely ignoring Article 5.

The US gave its word to stand with these countries and they gave their word to stand with us. If its anything that the US feels the most strongly for, it is our resolve to stand by our word when we agree to help protect. Is the former Eastern Bloc the US heartland? No, but these are our people and we must stand with them at all costs.


If anyone thinks China is not watching how the US responds, I have some prime central Florida real-estate for sale you might be interested in.....

 

[dr wogz]

Come on up! We'll merge CAR/ACF into TRA, drop the silly border restrictions, and have even more fun. Poutine on me.

Bruce, I'll supply the Poutines & maple syrup, you provide the steaks & burgers!!

 

[icyclops]

This is not about NATO, or its relations with Ukraine, which are minor and insignificant.
NATO has no obligations w.r.t. Ukraine.
The US actually does:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/uk...pddHIgYfi9yxA5n9nKru-dw4qlpDJ0BBoC_S8QAvD_BwE
If the US is unwilling or unable to stand behind its commitments to protect Ukrainian territorial integrity today, what does it say about our commitment to Taiwan's independence tomorrow?
Of all the players, China must be watching how the US responds with an even greater interest than Russia!



The issue at stake is our (US) foreign policy, US security assurances to Ukraine in exchange for nuclear disarmament, and US leadership position in Europe and the world.
Russia/Putin have been on a revanchist bender trying to reassemble Soviet empire through raw military aggression.
#44 and #45 have responded meekly, with mild sanctions and talks of accommodation. We will see if #46 has any balls, but somehow, I doubt it.

Putin's agenda is not to grab a slice of Ukraine, or some parts with certain linguistic preferences. Giving him slices of neighboring countries would do nothing to increase security in Europe.
And all this is ignoring the fact that NONE of those neighboring countries want to, or will accept, occupation by Russia. BTDT, we all know how that ended.

The last guy to try a similar territorial expansionist policy and methods in Europe was speaking German and sporting a stupid moustache.
We appeased that last guy with territorial concessions for about a decade, before the inevitable happened and we got sucked into a world war.
'nuff said.



Not a buffer from Turkey or Middle East. And not even from the US or NATO.
Russia does not really need any defensive buffers from anyone in 21st century. It's a red herring Russian argument to distract the gullible.

“It cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire” Zbigniew Brzezinski.​

Can anyone honestly say that the US is actually better off allowing Russian empire to be re-stablished?
The real question is - when do we contain Russia (and China), and how.
Appeasement never works, and never ends well.

a

Nor does trying to police the world…we just got out of an example of that.…. But Genocide is a really hard thing to turn the other cheek ….never simple answers and almost always leds to war….get ready to pick your side.

 

[cwbullet]

There is no way that the US will (can) not get involved militarily if Russia takes things to the next level.

I think you might be underestimating what we will do. We will get involved. It will take more than an attack on Ukraine, but trust me NATO (and hence the US) will not standby and watch another invasion of Ukraine.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

The thing about all of the previous wars the U.S. has been involved in, is that none of the adversaries were nuclear armed nations.
Yes, we have faced-off against the Soviets and Chi-Coms before but only in a proxy war situation.
We have never gone guns-out against Russian or Chinese ground troops and never have we faced off against their navies.
Be it Ukraine or Tiawan I can see either or both escalating to the point nukes are exchanged and once that genie is out of the box . . .

 

[Dwatkins]

Russia will attack the Ukraine on the same day as China attacks Tiawan. Both coordinated with each other a head of time knowing we cannot respond effectively to both attacks.

 

[Banzai88]

Russia will attack the Ukraine on the same day as China attacks Tiawan. Both coordinated with each other a head of time knowing we cannot respond effectively to both attacks.

Christmas day, new years day, or after the Olympics? What's Q say on the issue?

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Christmas day, new years day, or after the Olympics? What's Q say on the issue?

As I understand the ground in the Ukraine needs to freeze before an invasion becomes possible, otherwise the tanks, APC's and such will get bogged down.
This probably means mid-winter if it is going to happen at all.

 

[user 35280]

I think you might be underestimating what we will do. We will get involved. It will take more than an attack on Ukraine, but trust me NATO (and hence the US) will not standby and watch another invasion of Ukraine.

Were the two army brigades, that were removed, returned to Europe after the Obama era?

 

[afadeev]

The thing about all of the previous wars the U.S. has been involved in, is that none of the adversaries were nuclear armed nations. Yes, we have faced-off against the Soviets and Chi-Coms before but only in a proxy war situation.
We have never gone guns-out against Russian or Chinese ground troops and never have we faced off against their navies.

Has everyone forgotten the cold war, that wasn't nearly as cold as the name implies?
US has never declared open warfare on either Soviets or Chinese (and vice-versa), but plenty of men have fallen in active fighting with both.

US forces directly fought 180,000 Chinese troops during Korean war in the 50s, including Chinese defeating MacArthur at Unsan and taking Seoul. In fact, North Korea only exists as a state because China sent troops into NK to create it, and NK has largely remained a Chinese client state ever since.
https://www.sparknotes.com/history/american/koreanwar/section6/
3,000-10,000 Russians were deployed to Vietnam and killed Americans as fighter pilots, triple-A operators, and in numerous SF teams.

https://sofrep.com/news/war-vietnam-bigfoot-soviet-military-experts/https://www.rbth.com/history/332396-how-soviets-fought-against-americans
And those are just two of the obvious and well documented examples.

Be it Ukraine or Tiawan I can see either or both escalating to the point nukes are exchanged and once that genie is out of the box . . .

I don't see anyone going nuclear.
Zero upsides, obvious downsides.

Russia will attack the Ukraine on the same day as China attacks Tiawan. Both coordinated with each other a head of time knowing we cannot respond effectively to both attacks.

Russia is already in Ukraine.
Has been for years, since they invaded Crimea, conducting ongoing low-grade warfare. US stood by and responded meekly with minor and inconsequential sanctions.
Russia has been escalating ever since.

China is unlikely to attack Taiwan any time soon.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/11/taiwan-is-safe-until-at-least-2027-but-with-one-big.html

 

[boomtube-mk2]

As I said, both Korea and Vietnam were proxy wars where both China and the Soviet Union never openly acknowledged their participation even when it was obvious to the outside world.

If Chinese naval and air force units move against Taiwan and we start shooting down their aircraft or sinking their ships, that's another thing entirely as compared to Korea.

If Russia moves against the Ukraine, they might very well take the entire nation before the U.S. and its allies could build-up the forces needed to stop them.
We could see something along the lines of a Blitzkrieg with Russian overrunning the Ukraine forces in a matter of weeks maybe less.

 

[Banzai88]

As I said, both Korea and Vietnam were proxy wars where both China and the Soviet Union never openly acknowledged their participation even when it was obvious to the outside world.

If Chinese naval and air force units move against Taiwan and we start shooting down their aircraft or sinking their ships, that's another thing entirely as compared to Korea.

If Russia moves against the Ukraine, they might very well take the entire nation before the U.S. and its allies could build-up the forces needed to stop them.
We could see something along the lines of a Blitzkrieg with Russian overrunning the Ukraine forces in a matter of weeks maybe less.

Most assessments I've read recently say it's likely that Russian tanks would be in Kiev within 24 hours, complete control within the week, and total consolidation within 2 weeks.

From there it seems likely that Russia would divide the already divided Ukraine into Eastern, Central, and Western regions, thereby containing NATO......and damn any BS/useless sanctions that the West might care to levy upon them.

 

[boatgeek]

Most assessments I've read recently say it's likely that Russian tanks would be in Kiev within 24 hours, complete control within the week, and total consolidation within 2 weeks.

From there it seems likely that Russia would divide the already divided Ukraine into Eastern, Central, and Western regions, thereby containing NATO......and damn any BS/useless sanctions that the West might care to levy upon them.

If Russia does invade Ukraine, it can say goodbye to most of its hard currency trade. While the elites will still be kept in Champagne by the black market, the proles are going to suffer pretty hard. At some point, even Putin pulling a tail-wagging-the-dog isn't going to keep them happy. With Sputnik ineffective against omicron, people will start noticing the piles of bodies outside hospitals, even if the news doesn't carry it. While I don't expect a full-on revolution, Putin's grip will slip significantly.