Thoughts on the middle east conflicts.

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Naw, when Putin murders someone, you know Putin murdered them. Unless you believe that they were extremely careless near windows or nerve agents.
I dunno.
Raisi was pretty carelessly near a (helicopter) window.
Not to say PuPu didn't do it. Or that he did do it. Or that he needed to do it. Just that old habits die hard.

Then there is the most obvious culprit - flying in 60+ year old helicopter, in fog, over mountains.
That one got the best of even Kobe Bryant. In a modern heli. Never mind Raisi in Bell 212 (civilian version of the ubiquitous Vietnam War-era UH-1N "Twin Huey).
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

a
 
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Unfortunately you try to make the distinction between Hamas the terrorist organization and Hamas the government. They are one in the same. They are the government that Gazan's overwhelming voted for and support at what has been reported in some circles as "090%" of the people. I don't know how accurate the "90%" is but Hamas the terrorist organization was overwhelmingly voted into the government role. I'm sure there are some besides the 10% who've now rethought that decision.
We need a fact check here.

Hamas won one election against Fatah (in 2006) 44.5% to 41.3%. They have not held elections since. That is not an overwhelming vote.

From 2014 to 2023, a solid majority of people in Gaza supported having the Palestinian Authority re-establish control in Gaza and Hamas disband its armed units. Somewhat counterintuitively, in 2023 ~60% also had a positive or somewhat positive view of Hamas. However, that may be part of the issue you noted above where Hamas is the local government as well.

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org...gainst-breaking-ceasefire-hamas-and-hezbollah
 
I'm making a distinction between Hamas (which is both the terrorist organization and the government) and the bulk of the Gazan people. They voted for Hamas a long time ago and Hamas has not allowed new elections since. The bulk of the people just want to live their lives, and they thought, foolishly, that a Hamas government would let them and help them do that.
 
Couldn't Occam's Razor apply here? Iran is not known for their "1st world aviation abilities" Given what's been reported, it's more likely it was just "CFIT" (Controlled Flight Into Terrain). Pretty much a "Kobe" scenario.
That is why I say 50/50, a lot of people would like him removed, versus terrible weather and a helicopter that doesn’t have the best maintenance. (I don’t think age is the correct unit here, a well maintained sowing machine will work for 100 years.
 
That is why I say 50/50, a lot of people would like him removed, versus terrible weather and a helicopter that doesn’t have the best maintenance. (I don’t think age is the correct unit here, a well maintained sowing machine will work for 100 years.
A sowing machine is not a helicopter. And genuine replacement parts for US-built aircraft have been in short supply in Iran since circa 1979.
 
That is why I say 50/50, a lot of people would like him removed, versus terrible weather and a helicopter that doesn’t have the best maintenance. (I don’t think age is the correct unit here, a well maintained sowing machine will work for 100 years.
I wouldn't even say "50/50". I'd say more like "90/10" that it was pilot error. The only reason I'd give other nefarious causes 10% is because it does benefit the world and a good conspiracy theory only has to be "10% true". ;)
 
In response to several points above, such as a role for the PA in Gaza, a poll reviewed by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) demonstrated that currently 81% of Palestineans are not in favor of Abbas in a Gazan government. In essence, Hamas would continue in leading the government.
In addition, some have argued on the erroneous premise that there is a moral equivalency between Israel and Hamas. However, there is no such equivalency. This is in part manifested by reading the Charter of the Hamas Gazan government, promulgated in 1988, in a number of its 32 sections it calls for the destruction of infidels and jihads against the Jewish people.
Some implied that Israel should not disregard Biden's public urging to avoid entering Rafah. I wonder how we would have responded to advisement to not pursue Benlauden after our losses during 911. Israel sends out notices (phone,letter drop and via text) to Palestinians about upcoming attacks and where to relocate safely. Finally, the ratio of civilians killed to terrorists is barely above 1:1, a level never achieved by US forces. There is no moral equivalency. Despite international comdenation, Israel will do what is best for their safety without purposely inflicting harm to innocent civilians (unlikeHamas).
 
I dunno.
Raisi was pretty careless near a (helicopter) window.
Not to say PuPu didn't do it. Or that he did do it. Or that he needed to do it. Just that old habits die hard.

Then there is the most obvious culprit - flying in 60+ year old helicopter, in fog, over mountains.
That one got the best of even Kobe Bryant. In a modern heli. Never mind Raisi in Bell 212 (civilian version of the ubiquitous Vietnam War-era UH-1N "Twin Huey).
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

a
Not quite 60 year old helicopter, the Bell 212 didnt even have its first flight until 1968 and they were produced from then up until 1998, my guess is that his helicopter was a very late manufacture one and not one of the early models, but it was at minimum 24 years old. Not terribly old but definitely requiring careful maintenance and upkeep. I am with Bravo52 on the percentages most of the world would like to see him removed, however his successor might be someone even worse, and will be appointed pretty much by Ali Khamenei.
 
(I don’t think age is the correct unit here, a well maintained sowing machine will work for 100 years.
Have sowing machines been around for 100 years? Or did you mean sewing machine? ;)

But seriously, that hundred year old sewing machine has had more than cleaning and oiling over those hundred years. It's had new needles, new belts, at least one new power cord if it's electric, etc. Hence @boatgeek's comment.

In addition, some have argued on the erroneous premise that there is a moral equivalency between Israel and Hamas. However, there is no such equivalency.
Stating that both sides have done bad things is not the same as "argu[ing] on the... premise of moral equivalence." Of course such a premise is erroneous. Still, one side doesn't gain license to be bad simply because the other side is worse.
 
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Have sowing machines been around for 100 years? Or did you mean sewing machine? ;)
Sowing machines, ie. Seed planters are quite a bit older.

"Jethro Tull invented the seed drill in 1701 as a way to plant more efficiently. Prior to his invention, sowing seeds was done by hand, by scattering them on the ground or placing them in the ground individually, such as with bean and pea seeds. Tull considered scattering wasteful because many seeds did not take root."
 
IIMC (Inadvertent Instrument Meterological Conditions) into CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain) is the most common cause of helicopter crashes and fatalities. This is pilot error flying a perfectly good ship into the ground. Often, pilots fly lower and lower getting under the clouds or get forced into the clouds, loose their reference and become disoriented. The crash the killed Kobe is the most famous in recent memory, but there are many others. Another similar crash killed a pilot, medic and nurse in Southern Ohio a few years ago.

Age comes with some problems, but maintenance is key. Our ship was built in 1991. Our mechanics are dedicated to it and do a good job keeping it air worthy and in service as much as possible. Down time and breakdowns are a given with anything mechanical, but they do a good job. We had a backup built in 1979 once, that one was VFR only and is still flying but no longer an ambulance.
 
Sowing machines, ie. Seed planters are quite a bit older.

"Jethro Tull invented the seed drill in 1701 as a way to plant more efficiently. Prior to his invention, sowing seeds was done by hand, by scattering them on the ground or placing them in the ground individually, such as with bean and pea seeds. Tull considered scattering wasteful because many seeds did not take root."
And the sort that you make clothes with was invented in the mid 1800s.

Ps they also started the feminist movement but that’s a different story.
 
Have sowing machines been around for 100 years? Or did you mean sewing machine? ;)

But seriously, that hundred year old sewing machine has had more than cleaning and oiling over those hundred years. It's had new needles, new belts, at least one new power cord if it's electric, etc. Hence @boatgeek's comment.
Ha! I never considered the possibility of sewing machines. I kind of dispute the premise here. Needles, cords, and belts (see below) are more or less commodities that wouldn't be that hard to acquire on the black market, much like Cubans can get spark plugs to keep their old American cars running. It's when you get into machined parts that I think you're more likely to run into trouble. Sewing machines' precision parts last more or less forever with decent maintenance (and can often be cleaned back to working order), whereas I am guessing that a helicopter has precision parts that need replacement every so often.

My daughter's sewing machine is from the late 1890's and is original except for needles. Even the belt is original, though it is a treadle.
My son's sewing machine is from the late 1940's and has has a couple of rubber parts and the cord replaced.
My sewing machine is from the early 1960's and is entirely original except for needles. At some point I'll need to replace the cord, but not yet.

I wish we still built stuff like this to last, but that's another thread.
 
Sowing machines, ie. Seed planters are quite a bit older.

"Jethro Tull invented the seed drill in 1701 as a way to plant more efficiently. Prior to his invention, sowing seeds was done by hand, by scattering them on the ground or placing them in the ground individually, such as with bean and pea seeds. Tull considered scattering wasteful because many seeds did not take root."
Interesting, thanks. I did not know that (and, incidentally, did not claim to).

And the sort that you make clothes with was invented in the mid 1800s.

Ps they also started the feminist movement but that’s a different story.
That, I knew. (And they were only one factor among several that started the feminist movement. And the labor movement.)

Ha! I never considered the possibility of sewing machines. I kind of dispute the premise here. Needles, cords, and belts (see below) are more or less commodities that wouldn't be that hard to acquire on the black market, much like Cubans can get spark plugs to keep their old American cars running. It's when you get into machined parts that I think you're more likely to run into trouble. Sewing machines' precision parts last more or less forever with decent maintenance (and can often be cleaned back to working order), whereas I am guessing that a helicopter has precision parts that need replacement every so often.
My point was only that helicopters, like sewing machines, need parts now and then. Of course sewing machine parts are easier to get; difficulty in acquiring them was not the point. (I bet the precision parts for the helicopters are available on the black market, up to a point, like the spark plugs in Cuba. But I guess this tangent has gone on long enough.)
 
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My daughter's sewing machine is from the late 1890's and is original except for needles. Even the belt is original, though it is a treadle.
My son's sewing machine is from the late 1940's and has has a couple of rubber parts and the cord replaced.
My sewing machine is from the early 1960's and is entirely original except for needles. At some point I'll need to replace the cord, but not yet.

I wish we still built stuff like this to last, but that's another thread.

I have my grandmother's Singer that her tailor father gave her pre-WWII.
 
Possible major new development for the better:

Biden details Gaza truce proposal, Hamas responds positively​

By Steve Holland and James Mackenzie
June 1, 20248:35 AM PDTUpdated 13 hours ago



  • Summary
  • LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
  • US says first phase would involve negotiations on a permanent ceasefire
  • Hamas says it will respond in a 'constructive manner'
  • US secretary of state speaks with Jordan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to build support for plan
WASHINGTON/JERUSALEM, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday laid out what he described as a three-phase Israeli proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza in return for the release of Israeli hostages, saying "it's time for this war to end" and winning a positive initial reaction from Hamas.
The first phase involves a six-week ceasefire when Israeli forces would withdraw from "all populated areas" of Gaza, some hostages - including the elderly and women - would be freed in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Palestinian civilians could return to their homes in Gaza and 600 trucks a day would bring humanitarian aid into the devastated enclave.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...roposal-hamas-responds-positively-2024-05-31/
 
Hamas has to love this idea. They'll keep their soldiers and add more troops. They have a ready group of people just waiting to join. They'll re-arm. I'm sure Iran will provide weapons and money. I'll bet they still have tunnels left too. Given time this will all happen again. Their stated goal is to destroy Israel and they won't stop until they do.
 
Hamas has to love this idea. They'll keep their soldiers and add more troops. They have a ready group of people just waiting to join. They'll re-arm. I'm sure Iran will provide weapons and money. I'll bet they still have tunnels left too. Given time this will all happen again. Their stated goal is to destroy Israel and they won't stop until they do.
Maybe the point is that Mr Biden and his reelection campaign loves this idea. And have you noticed there is no full buy-in from the Israeli cabinet?
 
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Israeli government elements have already said "no" to Biden's proposal. They said in no way will Hamas be part of any governing body that is installed in Gaza, which is part of the Biden administration's plan (I doubt Biden cares). Three of the 13ish political parties (~23%) in the government, including Likud, has said no. Likud has threatened to dissolve the government coalition if Netanyahu even considers the proposal. Likud is Netanyahu's own party.
 
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