AKPilot
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2009
- Messages
- 5,347
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Folks, we used to laugh about all of the polls on TRF 1.0. But there's some validity to it all. By the end of this you're going to be saying, "AK lighten up!" Or that just what my wife says?
Polls are notorious for being in accurate. Here's the problem with many of them.
They typically only hit a sample of a population.
In this case we have 600+ TRF users currently. As of now, only approximately 60 some-odd people have replied. So the population is 600+, the sample is 60 (roughly 10%).
The problem with samples is that they hit a few snags. Statistically, the individuals who respond are typically either happy or upset (outlying T-values). The majority (80%; paretto principle) don't respond. So in polls, the people that respond are often the "vocal" minority.
In the case of the poll above, initial looks tend to indicate that there are people who want posting numbers taken away (e.g. Yes vote). However, there are also those who've said "No". And another who have said "I don't care".
Unless we get everyone on TRF to commit and complete this poll the "I don't care's" are represented by the population who haven't voted. Not those who responded. In other words, "I don't care" is representative of those who both answer - as well as those who don't do the poll.
As for the "No" vote, their vocaling stating no. However, if the remaining TRF population was to answer that statistic may go up more. Same with the "Yes" votes. We simply don't know.
See being vocal, and answering a poll are two entirely different things.
This is why many people, who are savy, discount polls entirely. Basically, the press, TV, radio polls, etc. are skewed from the onset, and tend to suck-in people who take them for gospel truth.
Are they fun? Yes, at times. But, I can't base my decision on a sampling of the vocal-minority.
Also, my decision was based on the issue that they don't hurt anyone either. It's another tool for some, to chide and to have conversations about - such as is happening now.
I'll be the first to admit - I liked being able to chide Jim Flis on his 15,000+ post count on TRF 1.0. Jim, being the stellar man that he is, never took it personally as far as I knew.
Polls are notorious for being in accurate. Here's the problem with many of them.
They typically only hit a sample of a population.
In this case we have 600+ TRF users currently. As of now, only approximately 60 some-odd people have replied. So the population is 600+, the sample is 60 (roughly 10%).
The problem with samples is that they hit a few snags. Statistically, the individuals who respond are typically either happy or upset (outlying T-values). The majority (80%; paretto principle) don't respond. So in polls, the people that respond are often the "vocal" minority.
In the case of the poll above, initial looks tend to indicate that there are people who want posting numbers taken away (e.g. Yes vote). However, there are also those who've said "No". And another who have said "I don't care".
Unless we get everyone on TRF to commit and complete this poll the "I don't care's" are represented by the population who haven't voted. Not those who responded. In other words, "I don't care" is representative of those who both answer - as well as those who don't do the poll.
As for the "No" vote, their vocaling stating no. However, if the remaining TRF population was to answer that statistic may go up more. Same with the "Yes" votes. We simply don't know.
See being vocal, and answering a poll are two entirely different things.
This is why many people, who are savy, discount polls entirely. Basically, the press, TV, radio polls, etc. are skewed from the onset, and tend to suck-in people who take them for gospel truth.
Are they fun? Yes, at times. But, I can't base my decision on a sampling of the vocal-minority.
Also, my decision was based on the issue that they don't hurt anyone either. It's another tool for some, to chide and to have conversations about - such as is happening now.
I'll be the first to admit - I liked being able to chide Jim Flis on his 15,000+ post count on TRF 1.0. Jim, being the stellar man that he is, never took it personally as far as I knew.