Climate Change – Happening or not?

[tmacklin]

Is this a "scientific poll"?

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Is this a "scientific poll"?

I think that would be a stretch...

 

[fatdaddynerd]

This is an ambiguous question at best. Our climate is constantly changing. In the history of the world there have been no 2 days exactly like the other.
There is no scientific baseline that can be agreed upon as a control. The data is incomplete, the sample size is minuscule. Even now, be it through the use of satellites or buoy monitors, can only measure a small percentage of the global climate economy. Certainly one can extrapolate the data out and make a good guess as to possible patterns but even the weatherman has problems accurately predicting the weather for tomorrow let alone 20 years from now. I find wallstreet and international market to be more consistent.

THE MAIN PROBLEM I have with the so called science of global warming is that is does not adhere to the strictest rule in science. Science takes a hypothesis and through a systematic approach tests it for falsifiability. And i know it sounds as tho i am bordering on the political here but i assure you i am not. I am simply saying that with incomplete data, differentiating baseline/control points, the relatively short time we have records of even part of the earths climate (compared to how long the earth has been here) AND the lack of a clear definition of "climate change" combined with all the political gobble-dee-goop (thats the technical term) surrounding the issue leads we to conclude...

wait for it...

It is scientifically impossible to "prove" human caused climate change or "natural" change because climate change itself is not falsifiable. Unfalsifiable statements can not be scientific.

 

[tmacklin]

The results are in and the winner is.......?

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

This is an ambiguous question at best. Our climate is constantly changing. In the history of the world there have been no 2 days exactly like the other.
There is no scientific baseline that can be agreed upon as a control. The data is incomplete, the sample size is minuscule. Even now, be it through the use of satellites or buoy monitors, can only measure a small percentage of the global climate economy. Certainly one can extrapolate the data out and make a good guess as to possible patterns but even the weatherman has problems accurately predicting the weather for tomorrow let alone 20 years from now. I find wallstreet and international market to be more consistent.

THE MAIN PROBLEM I have with the so called science of global warming is that is does not adhere to the strictest rule in science. Science takes a hypothesis and through a systematic approach tests it for falsifiability. And i know it sounds as tho i am bordering on the political here but i assure you i am not. I am simply saying that with incomplete data, differentiating baseline/control points, the relatively short time we have records of even part of the earths climate (compared to how long the earth has been here) AND the lack of a clear definition of "climate change" combined with all the political gobble-dee-goop (thats the technical term) surrounding the issue leads we to conclude...

wait for it...

It is scientifically impossible to "prove" human caused climate change or "natural" change because climate change itself is not falsifiable. Unfalsifiable statements can not be scientific.

It sounds like your answer to the poll would be "don't know."

One thing to keep in mind is the difference between weather and climate. The weather is what is happening in the atmosphere at any given place and time, while climate is the long term average of the daily weather over time. You can't predict the weather for San Diego and Anchorage and Miami on any given day in the future, but you can have an idea about the different climates in those places, based on the long term averages. So the poll question about climate change is asking whether the long term average climate is changing, not about the predictability of daily weather.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

View attachment 174066

The results are in and the winner is.......?

Funny cartoon! Political polls are notoriously sketchy.

This poll is very non-scientific and not about declaring a winner or loser. And it's also not about trying to get at the "truth" about climate change --- you can't determine truth by vote. The poll is really just about seeing what people think.

One of the things about the other threads I mentioned in an earlier post was that the tone in those threads was a bit intimidating, and there was a lot of name-calling with people throwing around terms like fraud, shill, denier, sheep, idiot, etc. It seemed like there was huge interest in the threads, as some of them got thousands of views, but the number of members actually posting was small. My thought was that there were a lot of people unwilling to say what they thought, because of the tone. This anonymous poll gives us a better idea of what our fellow TRF members think about whether climate change is happening than the more contentious threads do.

At this point, we have a total of 40 responses. Here is how the responses break down.

Climate change is NOT happening --- 0 responses --- 0%
NATURAL climate change is happening --- 15 responses --- 37.50%
ANTHROPOGENIC (human caused) climate change is happening --- 20 responses --- 50.00%
DON'T KNOW if climate change is happening or not, and/or don’t know what might be causing it --- 2 responses --- 5.00%
OTHER --- Please explain in a reply to the thread --- 3 responses --- 7.50%


From my point of view, the takeaway is that the overwhelming majority of people think that some form of climate change is happening, and the main ares of difference is wether it is mostly a natural process or mostly driven by human activity. NOBODY actually thinks it is NOT happening. Only 5% are unsure if it is happening or not. And of the 3 people who picked OTHER, at least 2 said they picked that choice because there was not an option for BOTH natural and human-caused --- so with those responses clarified, about 92.5% think some form of climate change is happening.

I'd say these results are different from what you might expect if you had read the other more heated and opinionated threads. Maybe this is something we should all bear in mind when posting on this topic. If you think you might want to imply that anthropogenic climate change is a hoax trumped up by scientific frauds, and the people who believe in it are all foolish sheep --- you may be insulting about half of the TRF membership. Likewise, if you think you might want to imply someone is an ignorant denier --- you may want to remember that no one in the poll actually denied climate change is happening, and the people you may be insulting are the 37.5% of the TRF membership who think it is happening, but is caused by natural processes.

Hopefully a few more members will take part in the anonymous poll.

 

[les]

I voted don't know more based on the cause.

I fully agree the climate is continually changing.

If I recall correctly weather forcasting was the start of chaos theory. A weatherman had a prediction. He (she?) decided to rerun but to simply entering data he did a bit of rounding and got a totally different forcast. The idea is small changes can add up for major changes. The idea that "a butterfly flaps its wings and causes a hurricaine".

Yes the climate is changing. Agree - it is always changing. The climate is somewhat cyclic - hot cold hot. Scientists say we have had 5 ice ages which then the planet warmed up. Without man.
But I also remember the 60's before "Earth Day" Streams that were bubble pits. Rivers occasionally catching fire due to all the pollutents.

So can man be a part - be the "butterfly" to aggrevate a change - possibly

We also have to consider the time span. The Earth is billions of years old. Humans have been around for thousands of years. Detailed science more in the hundreds. Detailed recorded metrology data, not really more than a hundred years. Climate change theory is only tens of years old. Can we really take such a short baseline and project the future, plus figure out the source? And I also agree there is insufficient monitoring across the globe and ocean depths to have sufficient data for a truly accurate model.

Some of the reasoning is based on statistics and hypothesis. Several years ago there was a study that showed suicide rates were higher in areas that listened to country music. There was a joke (at least I hope it was a joke) that country music caused suicides. But just because you can show a correlation does not make it a valid premise. More likely other events caused the higher suicide rates and the interest in country music.

So natural? Don't know
Man (butterfly) impact? Don't know
Improper interpretation of a correlation? Don't know.
Extended weather report will be right? Know that - the answer is no
Climate is changing - most certainly

 

[tmacklin]

A bit of unscientific research from Popular Science magazine. https://www.popsci.com/environment/gallery/2009-03/top-ten-greenhouse-gases/?image=9

Water vapor? Clouds? The stuff rain comes from? RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!

 

[ChrisAttebery]

I agree with you Dave.

I believe that the climate is changing, as it always has, and that the current climate change is a result of both natural and human causes. However, I can't agree with either of the clarifications since I don't know how much of the change is due to nature and how much is due to human causes. I can only say that the extremist on either side of the argument are both wrong. Climate change is not caused entirely by human sources, and it's not caused entirely by natural sources.

 

[BigRiJoe]

Well put, Les

 

[tmacklin]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade

I've got a better idea. Turn off the computer, go outside and dig a hole. Then fertilize it with what you have available and plant a fruit tree. Trees eat CO2, release oxygen and bear fruit. Man eats the fruit, exhales CO2, farts and produces more fertilizer. It's a beautiful system.

 

[cwbullet]

Now back to rocketry. Maybe you should start a climate change forum.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I voted don't know more based on the cause.

I fully agree the climate is continually changing.

If I recall correctly weather forcasting was the start of chaos theory. A weatherman had a prediction. He (she?) decided to rerun but to simply entering data he did a bit of rounding and got a totally different forcast. The idea is small changes can add up for major changes. The idea that "a butterfly flaps its wings and causes a hurricaine".

Yes the climate is changing. Agree - it is always changing. The climate is somewhat cyclic - hot cold hot. Scientists say we have had 5 ice ages which then the planet warmed up. Without man.
But I also remember the 60's before "Earth Day" Streams that were bubble pits. Rivers occasionally catching fire due to all the pollutents.

So can man be a part - be the "butterfly" to aggrevate a change - possibly

We also have to consider the time span. The Earth is billions of years old. Humans have been around for thousands of years. Detailed science more in the hundreds. Detailed recorded metrology data, not really more than a hundred years. Climate change theory is only tens of years old. Can we really take such a short baseline and project the future, plus figure out the source? And I also agree there is insufficient monitoring across the globe and ocean depths to have sufficient data for a truly accurate model.

Some of the reasoning is based on statistics and hypothesis. Several years ago there was a study that showed suicide rates were higher in areas that listened to country music. There was a joke (at least I hope it was a joke) that country music caused suicides. But just because you can show a correlation does not make it a valid premise. More likely other events caused the higher suicide rates and the interest in country music.

So natural? Don't know
Man (butterfly) impact? Don't know
Improper interpretation of a correlation? Don't know.
Extended weather report will be right? Know that - the answer is no
Climate is changing - most certainly

I agree with you Dave.

Thanks for participating, gentlemen!

I'm sorry I didn't include an option for BOTH and CAUSE UNKNOWN.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Now back to rocketry. Maybe you should start a climate change forum.

Thanks, Chuck. Did you pick an option in the poll or have something on the topic to post?

Not to worry. This has been my first and probably will be my last thread I've started about climate change on this forum. I'm here for rocketry.

 

[jderimig]

Thanks, Chuck. Did you pick an option in the poll or have something on the topic to post?

Not to worry. This has been my first and probably will be my last thread I've started about climate change on this forum. I'm here for rocketry.

Thirsty, although we disagree to some degree on this issue and sometimes exchanged heated retorts, I want to say you have done a good job on this thread and you have my respect (even if you are not right all the time :wink.

 

[dixontj93060]

Thirsty, although we disagree to some degree on this issue and sometimes exchanged heated retorts, I want to say you have done a good job on this thread and you have my respect (even if you are not right all the time :wink.

+1.

 

[BigRiJoe]

++2

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Thirsty, although we disagree to some degree on this issue and sometimes exchanged heated retorts, I want to say you have done a good job on this thread and you have my respect (even if you are not right all the time :wink.

+1.

++2

Thanks, guys! I appreciate it. And the feeling is mutual.

I like the way people have been able to make their points in this thread in a respectful way for the most part.

 

[chrism]

I don't believe that humans are responsible for climate change, I believe it is a natural cycle. Record keeping on the weather has only been around since the late 19th Century. So what was the weather like 500 years ago? NASA has photos of the polar caps on Mars melting. What caused that? My question is this: Who is making money on climate change?

 

[jcato]

My question is this: Who is making money on climate change?

My question is: "Who is making money on changing the climate?"

-- john.

 

[tmacklin]

Here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pacific_garbage_patch is something man has caused and that man has the absolute power to stop by not littering.

 

[Zebedee]

https://xkcd.com/1379/

Climate change is happening and the results of the change will be bad for us so the real question is what do we do about it?

 

[tmacklin]

https://xkcd.com/1379/

Climate change is happening and the results of the change will be bad for us so the real question is what do we do about it?

Pith helmets, SPF 80 Sun blocker and beer.... lots of beer.

 

[Maxitout]

I have to vote "Other". Personally, I believe that any climate change that may be occurring is primarily natural, but there has to be a human factor, as well. But, what really irritates me about this issue of "global warming", (now politically corrected to "climate change"), is the "Junk Science" some use to verify there views. What I mean by that, is skewing the results by only using the data that fits their pre-conceived ideas of "climate change". That is NOT a scientific approach at all.
Good poll. Hope I didn't step over the line here.
Phil L.

 

[jderimig]

This is a must read blog for those who haven't already made up their minds yet (the open minded).

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com...-altered-us-temperatures-after-the-year-2000/

Although Goddard is a well know AGW skeptic the information presented in this blog post is all historical NOAA GISS data (and their 'revisions' after 1999).

 

[Astronot]

Since this discussion is already active, just thought I drop in and throw some gas on the fire. Get the temperatures up sort of speak. Pun intended.

Read 'em and weep fellas. It looks like the farmers are to blame now.

So it IS man made. Just not because of the current villain (CO2) that has been demonized lately. Probably because there's no real money to be made here. This News will surely get buried quickly with attacks to the contrary.

Latest global warming/climate change news article

Have fun with it,

David

 

[bwayne64]

Yep climate is changing. It was cold and dry here at 10:30 pm, a few minutes later, it's raining. I have one of those weather rocks. You know if it's white it's snowing, wet it's raining, ect. Just a little humor. I believe if man has done anything to warm the planet, it was done in the name of progress. The need for more and varied types of energy is a part of civilization. Without more efficient and plentiful energy sources, civilization stagnates and eventually returns to a more primitive state. As much as I like watching Little house on the prairie, I wouldn't want to live like that. I'm all for fusion, fission, solar and unobtanium power. But if you cut off your fossil fueled nose to spite your face, you will bleed to death. Gotta wean a baby slowly from the teat, or it will bite your nipple off. ; )

 

[astronwolf]

The climate is changing. The climate is always changing. The planet has been warming for ~12,000 years, when the glaciers started leaving St. Louis.

True, looking at the big picture is useful. The globe has been cooling off since about 55-57 million years ago. We're currently still in an "icehouse" climate.

IMHO it's good that humans came along and started taking carbon that has been locked away in the Earth's crust and putting it back into the biosphere. Our world's on-going slide deeper into an icehouse climate could've led to more extensive glaciation - deeper glaciation - that is not at all good for life on Earth. Not much grows on an ice sheet that covers half (or more) of the globe. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere had also dropped perilously close to the minimum that could sustain plant life. Big picture - what's happening now is not a bad thing - just part of the constant fluctuation of climate on our planet.

 

[PhilC]

Both natural and man-made climate changes are happening. The former cannot be stopped, the latter seems to be dominating any natural effects.
Records show that the rate of change of temperature has increased steadily since 1880. Atmospheric models which include man-made effects seem to correlate with the observed data. I'm inclined to believe in man-made climate change.

 

[Peartree]

I'm not going to wait for this thread to go bad.

Locked.