Those are all possibilities but the likely course of action against Iran will be in the form of aerial attacks on key facilities. Pretty much as you describe in the early parts of your post. I doubt there will be serious attacks in the area (water) of the Persian Gulf as the area is too valuable to the world. It would be a "last ditch effort" by Iran to sabotage the region, not as an attack on Iran. The same is true for Kharg Island. If someone pops Kharg Island, it will definitely get Japan and China's attention. None of the other countries have the capacity to attack Israel in any meaningful way, and that includes "willingness". Turkey won't likely get involved (maybe way after the fact) in this matter other than to move on northern Syria and that is for other reasons.
The key is "government". Until Iran failed miserably in attacking Israel, there was no cogent government really involved in the skirmishes with Israel. Even the leftist media machines out there don't consider Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houties legitimate sovereign governments. That has a large bearing on how this will turn out.
My guess, and all this is my guess, is Iran will simmer down. A lot of the Iranian population is modernizing and moving or have moved away from Ayatollah government. Aerial attacks on key infrastructure will cause the Ayatollahs to start to fear their own people more and focus their attention more inward. This latest failed attack and all of the "L"s they've been taking will cause them to reconsider. There will be lots of blustery talk, aided by complicit media, but in the end, they just proved to themselves they are not strong enough militarily to take on the west. Besides, Israel doesn't have the same constraints the US does about providing some artificial sunshine to the Alborz Mountain region.